Skip to main content

Concluding 1Q23 and current market trend

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently declared that Deutsche Bank is "very profitable," causing markets to pare losses and close in the green on Friday. Amid the recent banking crisis, the market trend continues to exhibit short-to-medium term upward momentum. However, as we enter the second half of 2023 (2H23), investors should exercise caution due to potential interest rate cuts.


Market Trend Amid Banking Crisis
Despite the ongoing banking crisis, the market trend remains on a short-to-medium term uptrend. This is evident from the swift recovery of the markets following Chancellor Scholz's positive statement about Deutsche Bank. The overall market sentiment appears to be cautiously optimistic, buoyed by the robust performance of key players such as Deutsche Bank.


S&P 500 Range Bound Trading and the End of 1Q23
As we approach the end of the first quarter of 2023 (1Q23), the S&P 500 continues to experience range-bound trading. Market participants should keep a close eye on potential directional breakouts as we conclude the quarter. Such breakouts could offer valuable insights into market trends for the coming months and provide opportunities for investors to capitalize on the prevailing market dynamics.




Caution in the Second Half of 2023
Investors should remain vigilant as we approach 2H23. The current interest rate futures market indicates a possible rate cut during this period. Historically, rate cuts have been employed to create favorable credit conditions in response to a weakening economy. This suggests that the upcoming rate cut may signal economic challenges ahead, warranting investor caution.


While Deutsche Bank's profitability has provided some reassurance to the markets, investors should remain cautious as we move into the second half of 2023. With possible interest rate cuts on the horizon, it is crucial to monitor market trends and adapt investment strategies accordingly. As we conclude the first quarter, the S&P 500's range-bound trading could give way to a directional breakout, providing new opportunities for market participants.




Blog disclaimers apply.

Most Popular

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025)

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025) Introduction: The Chinese zodiac plays a fascinating role in shaping cultural beliefs and behaviors. Among the 12 zodiac animals, the Year of the Snake is often associated with intelligence, caution, and financial shrewdness. We take a simply review of three key indices, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Straits Times Index (STI),  annual performance  during the Year of the Snake. Key Observations from the Data: S&P 500 Performance: Average annual return: 0.47% . Win/Loss ratio: 37.5% (3 years of gains vs. 5 years of losses). Notable years: 1989 marked a robust gain of 27.25% , while 1941 saw a steep decline of -20.22% , coinciding with global tensions during World War II. HSI Performance: Average annual return: -5.36% . Win/Loss ratio: 66.67% (2 years of gains vs. 1 year of losses). Notable years: The index's strongest year was 1989, with a return of 5.55% , while 2001 suffered a severe decli...
Read more

BYD Co (1211:HK) Witnessing Signs of Strength

BYD Co (1211:HK) Witnessing Signs of Strength On Friday, we observed strong buying within a wide trading range, with the stock closing near the day’s high and good volume recorded. The previous two days of selling showed relatively low volume, indicating potential supply exhaustion. The stock price is currently at a key resistance level, constrained by a downward trendline and a horizontal support-turned-resistance line. A breakout above this level could signal a potential trend reversal , with an initial technical price target of HK$300.00. The stock is outperforming the broader market, indicating strong market demand, as evidenced by our proprietary Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), which is above zero. Additionally, the volume momentum indicator (FFI) is improving, further supporting the possibility of supply exhaustion. The Stochastic indicator also continues to trend higher, reinforcing a bullish outlook. A stop-loss price is set below HK$248.40 . If the price falls below this l...
Read more

Live Webinar: Introduction to Tactical Allocation (The Basics of Trading)

Live Webinar: Introduction to Tactical Allocation (The Basics of Trading) The upcoming webinar is designed to equip new traders or someone who has experience trading the markets with the knowledge and tools to navigate the markets with a disciplined allocation process. Webinar Details: Title: Introduction to Tactical Allocation (The Basics of Trading) Date and Time:  12 Dec 24 (Thursday), 7.30pm Platform:  Live Webinar Registration: Click HERE What You'll Learn: An introduction to various financial markets and instruments Momentum and Fundemental Techniques Effective risk management strategy Steps to develop a personalized trading plan Who Should Attend: This webinar is perfect for: Individuals new to tactical allocation (trading) Those looking to enhance their financial literacy (in the area of tactical portoflio allocation) Anyone interested in understanding market dynamics Registeration:  Click  HERE (You will be lead to a SGX Academy registration website)
Read more