Market Technician

  Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 28 Aug 2023 Looking out for technical reversal indication Past week was an eventful one, with significant developments ranging from the arrest of former US President Donald Trump to BRICS expanding its membership to include financial powerhouses Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, the focal point for the financial markets remained the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chair at Jackson Hole. The Chair highlighted that current economic condition is more favorable and hinted at holding rates during the Sept FOMC meeting, but also suggested a possible 25 basis points hike later in 2023, aligning with market expectations. Personal view, mixed rate outlook could suggest potential interest rate pivot (peak). Currently, both the S&P 500 and Hang Seng Index are in the process of establishing support levels at 4,300 and 17,800, respectively. We are closely monitoring these markets for signs of supply exhaustion, which would indicate a potential reversal. Int...

  Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 21 Aug 2023 Markets searching for technical support US FOMC minutes have confirmed market’s fear of a hawkish US FED. This fear has triggered a continued sell-off in global equities over the past week. China economy and policy did not help too much either. China Evergrande filed for chapter 11 in US while Country Garden future remain uncertain as investors continue to keep an eye for a more aggressive policy from Beijing to support the economy and people’s confidence. From a technical perspective, markets are searching for technical support levels, where bargain hunters are willing to come in. Support levels are 4,300 for S&P 500 and 3,130 for STI. For the week ahead, market participants will be zooming in on US FED Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting.  We did not uncover trading (tactical) set up for the week ahead and will update once we identify any. Have a great trading week ahead.  Headlines for Week Ahead: Key corp ea...

  China Mobile (941 HK) Expecting Price Mark Up 5G Adoption and cloud application continues to pick up in China. The telco is expected to benefit from this trend and was reflected in the latest reporting. Revenue grew 6.8% yoy, as company hike its dividend payout to HK$2.43, up 10.50% yoy.  Technically, stock performs relatively stronger than market index HSI, which indicates demand from market participants. As price broke above key resistance at HK$65.75, which Fund Flow Index (FFI) is positive, we expect price momentum to continue.  First technical target at S$69.55, while stop loss is set at HK$63.60. CM 941 Interim Results: https://www.chinamobileltd.com/en/file/view.php?id=286974 Disclaimers apply

  Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 14 Aug 2023 Inflation, Deflation US is facing sticky core inflation situation with core producer price index (Core PPI) rebounding 0.3%, as China battles deflation with loan growth at its slowest since 2009. Market continues to price in US FED to maintain current rate policy with the possibility of one more 25bps hike at later this year, adding pressure to the equity markets. S&P 500 hits profit taking mode after touching 4,600 on 27 July. Technically, we are monitoring for supply exhaustion as the index nears first support at 4,300. China recovery remains bumpy with data points such as loan growth stays on the weak end of the story. For tactical trading, we look for Chinese companies that are economy neutral or are benefiting from structural trends such as China Mobile (941 HK). For the week ahead, we will monitor market leaders that potentially recovery earlier than the general market. These companies may include those that are benefiting fro...

  Expecting volatility to remain as earnings reporting slows Latest earnings reports showed that Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft all reported strong earnings growth. This is a sign that software companies are able to weather economic storms and continue to generate profits. On US credit rating downgrade, investors remain split. Some believe that the downgrade is a sign of underlying problems in the US economy, while others believe that it is largely symbolic.  The S&P 500 is facing supply pressure and volatility. Our key support levels for the index are 4,400 and 4,300. We remain alert for bullish trading opportunities, as we take a cautious view on the market overall. The Chinese market recovery is modest. We continue careful positioning into the Chinese market. The next sector expected to see recovery is the smaller cap growth sector. We believe that ChiNext ETFs such as CXS:SGX could move higher as the economy improves. Headlines for Week Ahead: US...