Skip to main content

I asked Bard what's the correlation between the S&P 500's first week performance and its full-year performance. Here's what it replied.

Reply from Bard: Absolutely! Here are some statistics on the correlation between the S&P 500's first week performance and its full-year performance:

Overall Correlation:

  • According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500's direction (positive or negative) in the first five trading days and for the whole year has historically correlated 69% of the time since 1950.
  • This correlation is even stronger in presidential election years, occurring 83% of the time over the same period.

Performance Indicators:

  • When the S&P 500 gains in the first five trading days, it has averaged a 14.2% return for the entire year.
  • Conversely, when the S&P 500 falls in the first five trading days, the average return has been negative 6.8%.
  • Some recent examples:
    • In 2022, the S&P 500 fell over 1% in the first five days and went on to lose 19.44% for the year.
    • In 2023, the S&P 500 gained in the first five days and ended the year with a 24.23% return.

Important Caveats:

  • While these statistics offer some historical trends, they are not guarantees. Individual years can defy the typical patterns.
  • Several factors, such as unforeseen events and seasonal trends, can influence the market beyond the first week's performance.

Additional Resources:

I hope these statistics provide some helpful insights! Remember, while historical data can inform your investment decisions, it's crucial to consider the broader economic and market landscape before making any investments.

Feel free to ask if you have any further questions about this topic or want to explore specific data points in more detail. 



Source: https://bard.google.com/

Most Popular

Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR: Technical Rebound at Sight After US Broad Market Stabilises

  Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) USD86.24 Palantir (PLTR) posted a bullish reversal, closing above the 13-day SMA (83.56) with significant volume expansion. This signals potential momentum strength in the near term. First key resistance zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (USD 99.85 – 105.79), which could present selling pressure. Disclaimers apply
Read more

DBS Group Holdings (D05) and Straits Times Index (STI): Technical Change of Momentum

         DBS Group Holdings (D05) and Straits Times Index (STI):  Technical  Change of Momentum  Recent price developments in DBS Group Holdings (SGX: D05) and the Straits Times Index (STI) signal a critical inflection point. Both instruments have breached established ascending trendlines, suggesting a potential reassessment in investor sentiment and market trajectory.  DBS Group Holdings (D05) Price Dynamics:  DBS has decisively broken below its ascending trendline, closing at SGD 44.23, registering a 3.53% decline. The price action underscores weakening upward momentum and raises the probability of an extended correction phase. Key Technical Levels: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement: SGD 41.45 50% Fibonacci retracement: SGD 39.78 61.8% Fibonacci retracement: SGD 38.12 Full retracement: SGD 32.72 Outlook:  The breach beneath the trendline suggests an erosion of bullish conviction. Immediate attention should be on the 38.2% retracement le...
Read more

Week Ahead: US Indices Momemtum in Question

    Week Ahead: 10 March 2025 Key event this week was  U.S. indices technically closed below the key 30-week (or 150-day) moving average . For the upward trend to continue, the indices need to reclaim levels above the moving averages. Remaining below the 30-week (or 150-day) moving average could indicate that the upward trend has reversed downward. However, in the short term, we expect a rebound as the indices trade near their respective support levels. Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX):  The S&P 500 broke below its key upward trendline, which had been established since October 2023. In the longer term, we expect the index to trade sideways or move in a downward direction. In the short term, we anticipate the S&P 500 will find support at the 5,700 level and could rebound to test the 5,860 and then the 5,966 resistance zones. Straits Times Index (STI):  The technical trend remains bullish. We maintain a constructive outlook while staying vigilant for any sig...
Read more