Market Technician

  Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 29 April 2024 Google entered the prestigious 2T club on Friday following its earnings announcement, contributing to the momentum of the stock market rally. The exclusive group of companies valued at over $2 trillion now includes Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia. A lighthearted suggestion for this elite group could be the "Fantastic 4," and perhaps humorously dubbed "MANGO" if Oracle could join the ranks. From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 found support at the 4,950 level, indicating expectations for the index to trade within a range of 4,950 to 5,260. The upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement next week garners significant attention, particularly regarding adjustments to inflation forecasts and the outlook for 2024 rate cuts. A notable development from the past week was the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and China A50 breaking above their respective medium-term downtrend resistance, suggesting a potential b...

  Week 22 April 2024 Be mindful of potential market volatility next week as several US mega-cap companies are announcing earnings. Risk-off sentiment continues to weigh on US stocks as hopes for interest rate cuts fade. However, it's worth noting that US financials remained resilient during the sell-off due as the banks benefit from high-interest margins. Interestingly, US listed Chinese tech companies were largely unaffected during Friday’s tech sell-off, which could indicate supply exhaustion and potential trade or allocation opportunities. Heads up for the Singapore market next week as market will due to soften in view of DBS going ex-bonus on Monday. This week, constrained retaliation actions by countries in the Middle East provide some level of relieve for investors and global citizens. Nil trade set-up for the week ahead but will update when we identify any. Headlines for the week: - US Corp Earnings (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Visa, Tesla, GE, UPS, Lockheed Martin, Q...

  Thoughts on Week Ahead:  Week 15 April 2024 As we embark on the week ahead, it's important to acknowledge the evolving landscape of market dynamics. Quoting from Netflix's '3 Body Problem,' we find ourselves in what could be termed a 'Chaotic era.' The S&P 500 has entered a phase of increased volatility, signaling a potential sideways or downward trend in the short to medium term. Initial technical support rests at the 5,050 level, marking a retracement of 23.60%. This shift in trend is likely influenced by stronger-than-anticipated inflation data and job reports, prompting the US Federal Reserve to prolong its 'higher for longer' rate policy. While bank earnings have failed to meet market expectations thus far, the onus now falls on broader market earnings to sustain current optimism. Failure to do so could result in investor sell-offs. China A50 Index failed to break above trend resistance, cautious o n tactical trades for Greater China. Gold e...

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  Chow Tai Fook (1929): is currently consolidating within a trading range, showing potential for a price breakout to the upside. Historically, the movement of gold prices tends to precede that of Chow Tai Fook. The initial target price is set at HK$13.80, with a secondary target of HK$15.80 if momentum continues. However, this outlook becomes invalid if the price falls below S$9.95. Disclaimers apply

  Weekly Market Outlook:  8 April 2024 Last week marked a critical juncture for US markets as the S&P 500 broke below its upward trendline support, suggesting the possibility of sideways or downward trends in the medium term. Short-term traders in the US market are anticipated to exercise caution, while long-term investors will be seeking opportunities to take profits and adjust their positions. Companies exposed to oil or gold may attract investing interest as commodity prices surged during the week. Looking ahead to the coming week, investors will closely observe the market's response to Tesla's Robotaxi initiative, speculating whether this technology will spark a surge in research and development and production of AI-driven transportation. Furthermore, investors will keep an eye on the US Federal Reserve minutes to gauge the level of confidence in potential rate cuts despite the resilient jobs report. Headlines for the week: - Corp Earnings (JPM, WFC, BLK, C) - US FOM...

  Chart: Gold inflow/outflow year-till-date, ETF.com There are suggestions stating the surge in gold prices likely attributed to central banks increasing their gold reserves. Should investors follow suit, it could potentially lead to a bullish pressure, driving the price of gold even higher. Disclaimers apply

  Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 1 April 2024 This week investors are flooded with economic data as we enter a new month and quarter. The US jobs report on Friday is especially important because it will provide clues about wage inflation. The technical picture for major markets is mostly unchanged from last week. The S&P 500 is bullish, but we are careful because trading volume and FFI indicator (Chart) is not keeping pace with price increases. Both the Straits Times Index (STI) and the China A50 Index are still trying to break through resistance at their trendlines. We are waiting to see a clear direction emerge in both markets. Upward trajectory observed in Brent crude oil may indicate potential opportunities within the energy sector stocks. Headlines for the week: - US NFP report, ISM report - China Mar Econ reports - SG PMI Survey, Retail Sales, MAS Announcement Disclaimers apply