Weekly Market Outlook

Thoughts on Week Ahead:

Week 29 April 2024

Google entered the prestigious 2T club on Friday following its earnings announcement, contributing to the momentum of the stock market rally. The exclusive group of companies valued at over $2 trillion now includes Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia. A lighthearted suggestion for this elite group could be the "Fantastic 4," and perhaps humorously dubbed "MANGO" if Oracle could join the ranks.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 found support at the 4,950 level, indicating expectations for the index to trade within a range of 4,950 to 5,260.

The upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement next week garners significant attention, particularly regarding adjustments to inflation forecasts and the outlook for 2024 rate cuts.

A notable development from the past week was the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and China A50 breaking above their respective medium-term downtrend resistance, suggesting a potential bottom for both indices. This could prompt investors to consider adding exposure to the China market in their core portfolios and engaging in more tactical trades within the Greater China markets.

DBS Group (D05) is set to announce earnings on Thursday, which could influence directional movements for Singapore banks and the Straits Times Index.

Headlines for the week:

- US Corp Earnings (Amazon, Eli Lilly, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Apple and Booking)

- SG Corp Earnings (DBS, REITs, Wilmar)

- US FED FOMC, Jobs Report

- China PMI, Labour day holiday

- SG PMI, retail Sales, Labour Day

Disclaimers apply

Wyckoff's Law of Effort

Law of Effort Wyckoff's Law of Effort states that on any single trading day (or week depending on time frame), huge volume (effort) push by participants should see huge price movement, resulting in a wide spread (long body). This is a basic principle of effort and result. However, as per Singtel's case study, we saw huge selling volume on 11 May, yet the price action only shows a narrow spread (small body). This divergence of effort and result in Wyckoff's Law of Effort principles, indicates possible exhaustion in selling or hidden buying. Thus, with a lack of weakness, Singtel should continue trading range bound for the coming days or weeks till further strength or weakness is observed. Swing Traders who trades range can consider positions at 3.70-3.72, with exit target 3.76-3.78.

DBS Group Holdings (D05): Upward Move Expectations

DBS Group Holdings (D05) Upward Move Expectations Technically, price trading above 36.58, could see DBS Group retest previous high of 38.55. Both Relative Strength and momentum indicator FFI are supportive of the move. Stop below 35.42 Disclaimers apply

Keppel DC REIT (AJBU): Expect price to trade towards S$2.00

Keppel DC REIT (AJBU) Expect price to trade towards S$2.00 We have observed a decrease in technical supply at the S$1.80 support area during recent trading sessions. Furthermore, a softer interest rate outlook could be advantageous for the Data Centre operator. Consequently, we anticipate the REIT to move towards our initial target of S$2.00, with the potential to reach S$2.20 if it breaks through resistance. Our stop level is set below S$1.72. Disclaimers Apply

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