Thoughts
on Week Ahead: Week 15
April 2024
As we
embark on the week ahead, it's important to acknowledge the evolving landscape
of market dynamics. Quoting from Netflix's '3 Body Problem,' we find ourselves
in what could be termed a 'Chaotic era.' The S&P 500 has entered a phase of
increased volatility, signaling a potential sideways or downward trend in the
short to medium term. Initial technical support rests at the 5,050 level,
marking a retracement of 23.60%.
This
shift in trend is likely influenced by stronger-than-anticipated inflation data
and job reports, prompting the US Federal Reserve to prolong its 'higher for
longer' rate policy.
While
bank earnings have failed to meet market expectations thus far, the onus now
falls on broader market earnings to sustain current optimism. Failure to do so
could result in investor sell-offs.
China A50 Index failed to break above trend resistance, cautious on tactical trades for Greater China.
Gold experienced climatic action on the final day of the trading week, we expect price to consolidate in the near term.
As we
navigate this dynamic landscape, we haven't identified any specific trading
opportunities for the upcoming week. And we will promptly update should any
arise.
Headlines
for the week:
- Corp
Earnings (GS, BAC, MS, LVS, Netflix, PG, Capital Intg Comm Trust)
- China 1Q24
GDP & Econ data
- SG Mar
NODX
Disclaimers
apply
Law of Effort Wyckoff's Law of Effort states that on any single trading day (or week depending on time frame), huge volume (effort) push by participants should see huge price movement, resulting in a wide spread (long body). This is a basic principle of effort and result. However, as per Singtel's case study, we saw huge selling volume on 11 May, yet the price action only shows a narrow spread (small body). This divergence of effort and result in Wyckoff's Law of Effort principles, indicates possible exhaustion in selling or hidden buying. Thus, with a lack of weakness, Singtel should continue trading range bound for the coming days or weeks till further strength or weakness is observed. Swing Traders who trades range can consider positions at 3.70-3.72, with exit target 3.76-3.78.