Weekly Market Outlook

Week Ahead: 19 Aug, 2024

Gold prices have hit a fresh record high, supported by a softer dollar and a lower interest rate outlook.

With the earnings season coming to a close, the S&P 500 has resumed its upward trend and could retest its July high of 5,670 as investors return to the equities market following last week’s unwinding of the JPY carry trade.

The STI may continue its upward momentum, boosted by better export data reported on Friday, with a potential retest of the 3,400 zone this week, marking a 61.80% retracement of the current wave.

The China A50, a leading indicator of the China and Hong Kong equities markets, is currently at a critical support level of 11,500. Investors will be closely watching for any catalysts from the Central Government or corporate earnings that could drive demand for Chinese and Hong Kong equities.

Headlines for the week:

- US Jackson Hole Symposium, FOMC Minutes,

- China LPR Fixing

- SG Jul CPI

Disclaimers apply

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025)

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025) Introduction: The Chinese zodiac plays a fascinating role in shaping cultural beliefs and behaviors. Among the 12 zodiac animals, the Year of the Snake is often associated with intelligence, caution, and financial shrewdness. We take a simply review of three key indices, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Straits Times Index (STI), annual performance during the Year of the Snake. Key Observations from the Data: S&P 500 Performance: Average annual return: 0.47% . Win/Loss ratio: 37.5% (3 years of gains vs. 5 years of losses). Notable years: 1989 marked a robust gain of 27.25% , while 1941 saw a steep decline of -20.22% , coinciding with global tensions during World War II. HSI Performance: Average annual return: -5.36% . Win/Loss ratio: 66.67% (2 years of gains vs. 1 year of losses). Notable years: The index's strongest year was 1989, with a return of 5.55% , while 2001 suffered a severe decli...

BYD Co (1211:HK) Witnessing Signs of Strength

BYD Co (1211:HK) Witnessing Signs of Strength On Friday, we observed strong buying within a wide trading range, with the stock closing near the day’s high and good volume recorded. The previous two days of selling showed relatively low volume, indicating potential supply exhaustion. The stock price is currently at a key resistance level, constrained by a downward trendline and a horizontal support-turned-resistance line. A breakout above this level could signal a potential trend reversal , with an initial technical price target of HK$300.00. The stock is outperforming the broader market, indicating strong market demand, as evidenced by our proprietary Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), which is above zero. Additionally, the volume momentum indicator (FFI) is improving, further supporting the possibility of supply exhaustion. The Stochastic indicator also continues to trend higher, reinforcing a bullish outlook. A stop-loss price is set below HK$248.40 . If the price falls below this l...

Week Ahead: Sustaining December’s Investor-Friendly Momentum

Week Ahead, 2 Dec 2024 Macro News: Despite inflation remaining firm, the market continues to expect that the US Federal Reserve has a higher probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting . December marks the final month of 2024 as we approach the year's end. Historically, the S&P 500 Index has been favorable to investors in December , with a 70.83% probability of a positive return and an average gain of 0.74%. We hope these trends persist in 2024. Currently, we have not identified any trade setups. We will provide updates if any opportunities arise. Medium Term: · S&P 500: The S&P 500 remains above the 6,000 level and could trend towards the 6,180 zone. · STI: The STI remains at the 3,700 resistance zone, with no major technical signals observed. If momentum sustains, the index could move towards the 3,860 level. · ...

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