Market Technician

  Week Ahead, 30 Sept 2024 A month ago, the acronym ABC stood for "All But China." A month later, it became "All-in Buy China." The China A50 Index surged 22% for the week, and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) outperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date. These gains followed Beijing's announcement of forceful policies to stimulate economic growth ahead of China's Golden Week holiday. Using the China A50 Index, Our Cycle Indicator for China markets, has turned positive (bullish). Therefore, investors might consider allocating funds to ETFs such as MCHI (US-listed), 2800 or 2822 (HKEX-listed), or HST or YYY (SGX-listed), which track the broader Greater China markets. Psychologically, the current price level might seem "too high" for some investors. One strategy is to start with 25% of the intended allocation and gradually increase it over time or apply Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). However, it's important to remain cautious. Markets will continue to monito...

  Singapore Banks: Larger than usual sell off today. Banks could see short-term pullback or consolidation following their recent rally.  Disclaimers apply

  NASDAQ 100 ETF: The ETF has broken out of its downtrend line, signaling a potential retest of its previous high at US$500 area , with immediate support at 470. Disclaimers apply

  Asian and Emerging Markets equities and bonds: Expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's rate cut,  as borrowing costs are expected to decrease, while stocks' valuation are further supported by stronger local currencies. EM, SG, HK ETFs have outperformed SPY ETF since rate cut announcement. Disclaimers apply

  Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Expect to go thru short-term pullback or consolidation following their recent rally.  Disclaimers apply

  Week Ahead, 23 Sept 2024 Asian and Emerging Markets equities and bonds are set to benefit from the Federal Reserve's rate cut , as borrowing costs are expected to decrease, while stocks are further supported by stronger currencies. The U.S. S&P 500 Index continues its upward trend. As long as the index holds above the 5,650 support level, the next technical target lies in the 5,900-6,000 zone. The NASDAQ 100 ETF has broken out of its downtrend line, signalling a potential retest of its previous high in the 500 area , with immediate support at 470. The Straits Times Index (STI) has reached its 3,600 technical target and may consolidate this week before moving towards the 3,700 area. Immediate support for the STI stands at 3,500. Singapore real estate investment trusts (REITs) are expected to go thru short-term pullback or consolidation following their recent rally. No single stock setups have been identified for the week ahead. Headlines for the week: - US Aug PCE, PMI ...

  Gold: Next technical projection for gold price is US$2,850/ounce basing on US$1,600-2,000 range. Disclaimers apply

  CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (C38U):  Price exits downtrend, expect further price recovery. AUM and DPU to grow after acquisition of ION Orchard (50%).  Disclaimers apply

  SG REITs: Continue to recover, in a less hawkish interest rate environment. Existing Downward Trend. Dividend Yield remain attractive at current level. Disclaimers Apply

  Week Ahead, 16 Sept 2024 Summary - The FOMC has a 50/50 probability of a 25 or 50 bps cut following weaker economic data. - Technically, the S&P 500 (US) and STI (SG) indices have moved higher. We have shifted our view to cautiously bullish, anticipating a broader price movement across equities rather than just the Mag7. - REITs continue to recover in a less hawkish interest rate environment. - The next technical projection for gold prices is US$2,850/ounce. Headlines for the week: - US FOMC - China LPR Fixing - SG Aug NODX, 2Q24 Employment, F1 Race Week Disclaimers apply

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Normalisation of the yield curve after a prolonged period of inversion. Investors are somewhat concerned about this development, as it has often signalled an impending US recession. However, we remain open-minded, noting that the yield curve inversion in 2022 did not lead to a recession. Disclaimers apply

  ThaiBev (Y92) Thailand stock markets have some responded positively to Thailand’s new prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, and her government. This could bring continued optimism to Thai related stocks. Disclaimers apply

Week Ahead, 9 Sept, 2024 Broadcom Inc's earnings fell short of the expectations of the AI investing community. Not only did the stock decline by 10.36%, but tech-related stocks and the NASDAQ 100 also experienced significant losses, with the latter dropping by 2.69%. The selling pressure was exacerbated by the August US non-farm jobs report, which came in at 142,000, below Wall Street's forecast of 160,000. Additionally, we observed a normalisation of the yield curve after a prolonged period of inversion. Investors are somewhat concerned about this development, as it has often signalled an impending US recession . However, we remain open-minded, noting that the yield curve inversion in 2022 did not lead to a recession. Given this week's performance, S&P 500 is now consolidating in a lower highs trend, non-bullish observation , but stayed above key support levels. Thus, we have adjusted our stance on the US equities market from bullish to neutral.  China stocks also fac...

  DBS Group Holdings (D05) Upward Move Expectations Technically, price trading above 36.58, could see DBS Group retest  previous high of 38.55. Both Relative Strength and momentum indicator FFI are supportive of the move. Stop below 35.42 Disclaimers apply

  Week Ahead: 2 Sept, 2024 While the Destined One was busy recovering relics in the blockbuster game Black Myth: Wukong, the markets continued their rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed the month at a record high of 41,335.05. In Asia, the Hang Seng Index gained 1.14%, and the Straits Times Index added 1.13% for the week. The overall U.S. economic narrative continues to suggest a 25 basis points (bps) cut in September, with some possibility of a 50 bps cut. As mentioned previously, we intend to continue trading the rally until key data or technical indicators suggest otherwise. From the performance of various indices, we can observe that stocks outside the Mag7 are experiencing broader catch-up, which also suggests this is where we should look for our trading setups or alpha. We expect both the S&P 500 and STI to retest their respective highs, which are not too far away. USD weakness remains as one of the key catalyst fueling the performance of Asian equities...