Week Ahead: Sustaining December’s Investor-Friendly Momentum

Week Ahead, 2 Dec 2024

Macro News:

Despite inflation remaining firm, the market continues to expect that the US Federal Reserve has a higher probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting. December marks the final month of 2024 as we approach the year's end. Historically, the S&P 500 Index has been favorable to investors in December, with a 70.83% probability of a positive return and an average gain of 0.74%. We hope these trends persist in 2024.

Currently, we have not identified any trade setups. We will provide updates if any opportunities arise.

Medium Term:

· S&P 500: The S&P 500 remains above the 6,000 level and could trend towards the 6,180 zone.

· STI: The STI remains at the 3,700 resistance zone, with no major technical signals observed. If momentum sustains, the index could move towards the 3,860 level.

· HSI: The China A50 Index cycle remains in an upward trend. The Hang Seng Index (grey) is currently at 19,000, the second support zone (Fibonacci 61.80%).

Long Term:

· S&P 500 remains upward

· Hang Seng Index (HSI) remains upward

· Straits Times Index (STI) neutral to upward trend.

Headlines Next Week:
- US Jobs Report, ISM Mfg and Services PMI, Speeches from US FED officials,

- China Nov Caixin Mfg PMI

- SG Nov PMI, Retail Sales

Disclaimers apply

DBS Group Holdings (D05): Upward Move Expectations

DBS Group Holdings (D05) Upward Move Expectations Technically, price trading above 36.58, could see DBS Group retest previous high of 38.55. Both Relative Strength and momentum indicator FFI are supportive of the move. Stop below 35.42 Disclaimers apply

Wyckoff's Law of Effort

Law of Effort Wyckoff's Law of Effort states that on any single trading day (or week depending on time frame), huge volume (effort) push by participants should see huge price movement, resulting in a wide spread (long body). This is a basic principle of effort and result. However, as per Singtel's case study, we saw huge selling volume on 11 May, yet the price action only shows a narrow spread (small body). This divergence of effort and result in Wyckoff's Law of Effort principles, indicates possible exhaustion in selling or hidden buying. Thus, with a lack of weakness, Singtel should continue trading range bound for the coming days or weeks till further strength or weakness is observed. Swing Traders who trades range can consider positions at 3.70-3.72, with exit target 3.76-3.78.

Keppel DC REIT (AJBU): Expect price to trade towards S$2.00

Keppel DC REIT (AJBU) Expect price to trade towards S$2.00 We have observed a decrease in technical supply at the S$1.80 support area during recent trading sessions. Furthermore, a softer interest rate outlook could be advantageous for the Data Centre operator. Consequently, we anticipate the REIT to move towards our initial target of S$2.00, with the potential to reach S$2.20 if it breaks through resistance. Our stop level is set below S$1.72. Disclaimers Apply

Market Technician

Search This Blog