Market Technician

  Week Ahead: 24 Feb 2025 - Nvidia’s earnings report this week will once again be the highlight of the week. As the leader of the AI rally, the market will be watching closely to see if demand for GPUs meets expectations, especially following DeepSeek’s release of a highly efficient model. - Another Sell-Off Friday, driven by weaker economic data and declining consumer sentiment. Equities, U.S. Treasury bond yields, and oil all fell. Even the CME FedWatch Tool reflected this weakness, now indicating the possibility of one to two interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year. - Also, Trump’s policy has shifted to retaliatory tariffs on digital taxes after introducing reciprocal tariffs. This is concerning news for the equities market. - China’s tech sector and broader economy diverge after the recent market rally. The Hang Seng Tech Index, fuelled by AI optimism, has surged much more sharply than other Chinese market indices. While China’s economic data has improved,...

Alibaba Inc (BABA, 9988): Technical Outlook, Expecting Further Mark Up The chart of Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd. (BABA) appears to follow the Wyckoff market cycle, with clear distribution, markdown, and possible accumulation phases. Below is a detailed breakdown of these phases based on the Wyckoff methodology: 1. Distribution Phase (2020 - 2021) During this period, the stock was in an uptrend before forming a distribution range, where supply began to outpace demand. The distribution phase is characterized by: Lower highs and higher lows, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Failed breakouts, which suggest smart money unloading shares to retail traders. Increased volatility and volume spikes, which often precede a major markdown. As the price failed to sustain higher levels, the Wyckoff sign of weakness (SOW) became evident, confirming the end of the uptrend. 2. Markdown Phase (2021 - 2022) Following the distribution, the stock entered a markdown phase where supply overwhelmed demand,...

  Week Ahead: 17 Feb 2025 Equities rebounded while Treasury yields fell after U.S. President Trump provided a generous lead time until April, allowing countries to negotiate trade tariffs. China’s AI rally continued, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising +7.30%. We will continue to ride the Hang Seng Tech momentum amid positive sentiment, next technical target is at 5,940 level. A key focus will be how companies incorporate AI into their products and its impact on their bottom line. Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 broke above our 6,100 resistance level. Sustaining above this level could see the index trading towards the 6,380–6,400 zone. If the index falls back below 6,100, the next support levels are at 5,970 and 5,832. Straits Times Index (STI): STI's technical outlook continues to be positive. Holding above the 3,850 level could see it trading toward the 4,000 level. Hang Seng Index (HSI): The China A50 Index (grey line) is still trending upward. The Hang Seng In...

  Week Ahead: 10 Feb 2025 It’s Sell-Off Friday again for the third consecutive week, as investors saw the market close lower after U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries next week. We are turning cautious on the S&P 500 after the index rejected the key 6,100 level for the fourth time this week. Alternatively, a breakout above this level would signal the continuation of the uptrend. DBS Group’s earnings announcement on Monday before market open is expected to set the tone for the Singapore market. On the chart, the stock is trading within the $43.00 – $45.00 range. Our volume-momentum indicator (FFI) and relative strength indicator are showing positive readings. Thus, while we remain cautious, there is potential for the bank stock to trade higher following the results announcement. The STI's technical outlook remains positive. Holding above the 3,850 level could see it trading toward 4,000. DBS Group’s results on Monday are expe...

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) Breaking Key Technical Levels Technical Observation: After DeepSeek moel was introduced, NVDA broke below both a bearish consolidation pattern and the key 150 SMA, while both the Relative Strength and Fund Flow indicators closed below zero. 1. Bearish Scenario: NVDA continues to trade below the gap area (124.80–141.88), indicating a tendency to trend lower. 2. Bullish Scenario: NVDA trades above 124.80 (the gap), suggesting that further mark-up is expected. Disclaimers apply

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (O39 SGX) Potential for Further Upside if the $17.60 Level is Breached Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (O39 SGX) is currently showing bullish momentum, supported by favorable technical indicators with potential of further upside. Technical and trade set up as follows: Supporting Technicals Uptrend Confirmation: O39 remains in a strong uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows observed over recent sessions. This suggests continued buyer interest and positive sentiment. Volume Surge: Strong volume was recorded on the last trading day, signaling increased participation and conviction among market participants. Relative Strength: The stock's relative strength against the broader market has moved above zero, indicating that it is outperforming its benchmark. Stochastics Momentum: The Stochastic oscillator ticked higher, reflecting a shift in momentum that could support further price gains. Cautionary Note – FFI: The only element o...

Week Ahead: 3 Feb 2025 DeepSeek Impact: DeepSeek disrupted the AI scene with Nvidia Corp (NVDA), market leader in the current AI rally, breaking its key technical levels. We remain cautious on Nvidia moving forward and have outlined both bullish and bearish scenarios for the stock. US Tariff Impact: US tariffs have begun, leading to a stronger dollar—a development the markets dislike. As a result, ETFs tracking both developed and emerging markets fell between 0.50% and 1.12%. Precious Metals: Among the headlines, precious metals such as gold emerged as winners for the week, gaining around +1.00% and trading at an all-time high, near US$2,800/oz. Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 is holding steady, consolidating this week as it encounters resistance again around 6,100.  Our outlook remains neutral for now.  The key level to watch is the 5,780-5,832 support zone.  As long as the index stays above this, further consolidation and a potential move upwards are p...