Market Technician

   Week Ahead: 31 March 2025 The coming week will be pivotal as markets assess global reactions to the  United States' implementation of reciprocal tariffs  and whether President Trump signals any recalibration of trade policy. Among the various risks, the psychological impact on consumer confidence is particularly significant. As evidenced by China’s experience, restoring consumer sentiment and reigniting domestic consumption is no easy task. We do not have any short-term (tactical) ideas for the week ahead. Instead, we will be closely monitoring demand-supply dynamics to identify any short- and long-term opportunities. We wish all our Muslim readers Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri  Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX):  The rebound in the S&P 500 Index was capped at the 5,780 level, now a Support-turned-resistance level. As a result, expectations for a continuation of the downward trend have increased. Immediate support is seen at the 5,550 level (Fibonacci 1....

Singapore REITs Sector ( S-REIT ETF) Poised for Rebound as Rate Outlook Turns Supportive The latest technical breakout in the CSOP iEdge S-REIT ETF (SGX: SRT) presents a opportunity for investors watching the real estate investment trust (REIT) space. Following months of weakness, SRT has decisively broken above its downward trend channel — a signal that the worst may be behind us, at least in the short term. This technical breakout aligns with a fundamental catalyst: the evolving interest rate expectations in the US. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants now overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing rates later this year , with the majority projecting the Fed Funds rate to fall into the 375–400 bps or even lower ranges by Q4 2025. Lower interest rates tend to benefit REITs, as borrowing costs decline and the yield spread versus other income assets becomes more attractive.  Technical Setup: Breakout From the Downtrend After trading within a well...

Week Ahead: 24 March 2025 Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 continues to hover around the 5,500 level (Fibonacci 1.618% support) and is showing increasing evidence of potential to test the resistance zone at 5,780–5,840, where previous support has turned into resistance. Straits Times Index (STI): The Straits Times Index (STI) traded above its key resistance zone of 3,850–3,900. As long as the index holds above this resistance-turned-support level, it could potentially test the 4,000 resistance level. Hang Seng Index (HSI): The China A50 Index (grey line) continues to trend upward, while the Hang Seng Index (candlestick) is encountering resistance around the 24,800 zone and approaching a key resistance level at 24,905. While our long-term outlook remains bullish, we maintain a cautious stance in the short term. Long Term: S&P 500 (SPX) Neutral (Upward trend remains intact, while downward trend could be developing) Hang Seng Index (HSI) Upward Trend Straits Times Index...

  Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) USD86.24 Palantir (PLTR) posted a bullish reversal, closing above the 13-day SMA (83.56) with significant volume expansion. This signals potential momentum strength in the near term. First key resistance zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (USD 99.85 – 105.79), which could present selling pressure. Disclaimers apply

  Ping An Insurance - Expecting Further Mark Up HKD 49.15 Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) has shown a bullish breakout above the key resistance level, supported by an uptick in trading volume. The price has reclaimed the 13-day SMA (47.32), signaling near-term momentum strength. Trading Management: 1st Target: HKD 52.35 (Fibo 1.618%) 2nd Target: HKD 57.00 (Fibo 2.618%) Swing Trailing Stop: 13-day SMA (currently at 47.32) Position Trading Trailing Stop: ATR(4,4) (currently at 42.37) Initial Stop Loss: HKD 44.80 (below support level) Disclaimers apply

  Week Ahead: 17 March 2025 FOMC meeting is scheduled for this week, with rates widely anticipated to be held within the 4.25%–4.5% range. However, the spotlight will be on the Federal Reserve Chairman's statement for insights into future rate policy, inflation, and overall economic conditions. From a technical perspective, while the S&P 500 Index (US market) remains in a medium-term downtrend, we anticipate the short-term rebound to persist. Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 rebounded at the 5,500 level (Fibo 1.618%), falling short of our anticipated target of 5,700. Considering the extreme oversold conditions observed on the FFI, there is a technical expectation for the rebound to extend, potentially testing the resistance zone at 5,780–5,840, where prior support turned resistance. Straits Times Index (STI): The STI failed to hold above the 3,850 resistance-turned-support level, rendering the short- to medium-term outlook for the index to be technically neutr...

         DBS Group Holdings (D05) and Straits Times Index (STI):  Technical  Change of Momentum  Recent price developments in DBS Group Holdings (SGX: D05) and the Straits Times Index (STI) signal a critical inflection point. Both instruments have breached established ascending trendlines, suggesting a potential reassessment in investor sentiment and market trajectory.  DBS Group Holdings (D05) Price Dynamics:  DBS has decisively broken below its ascending trendline, closing at SGD 44.23, registering a 3.53% decline. The price action underscores weakening upward momentum and raises the probability of an extended correction phase. Key Technical Levels: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement: SGD 41.45 50% Fibonacci retracement: SGD 39.78 61.8% Fibonacci retracement: SGD 38.12 Full retracement: SGD 32.72 Outlook:  The breach beneath the trendline suggests an erosion of bullish conviction. Immediate attention should be on the 38.2% retracement le...

   AMZN, NVDA, META, NFLX US Stocks that could experience a short-term rebound this coming week. However, if the price trades below Friday’s low, the expectation of a rebound will be invalidated. Disclaimers apply

    Week Ahead: 10 March 2025 Key event this week was  U.S. indices technically closed below the key 30-week (or 150-day) moving average . For the upward trend to continue, the indices need to reclaim levels above the moving averages. Remaining below the 30-week (or 150-day) moving average could indicate that the upward trend has reversed downward. However, in the short term, we expect a rebound as the indices trade near their respective support levels. Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX):  The S&P 500 broke below its key upward trendline, which had been established since October 2023. In the longer term, we expect the index to trade sideways or move in a downward direction. In the short term, we anticipate the S&P 500 will find support at the 5,700 level and could rebound to test the 5,860 and then the 5,966 resistance zones. Straits Times Index (STI):  The technical trend remains bullish. We maintain a constructive outlook while staying vigilant for any sig...

  25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index (ZROZ ETF) The price has recently broken above a downward trendline, signaling a potential short-term trend reversal. This breakout suggests the possibility of a retest of the previous resistance level and the major descending trendline near US$84.00. From a fundamental perspective, key catalysts include inflation data aligning with expectations and potential cost-reduction measures by the U.S. government, which could support further upside momentum. Disclaimers Apply

  NASDAQ Composite Index Following the recent sharp sell-off, we anticipate the NASDAQ 100 to retest the midpoint of its current trading range at 19,500. However, we will be closely monitoring key signals to determine whether the index will: 1. Consolidate within the existing range, or 2. Extend its downtrend further Market conditions and technical indicators will provide further clarity on the next directional move. Disclaimers Apply

  Week Ahead: 3 March 2025 • Additional Tariffs: New tariffs are set to take effect this week. Investors will closely monitor any potential expansion of tariffs to other countries and the corresponding market reactions. • Geopolitical Developments: While the fallout from the Trump-Zelenskyy deal remains a key topic, it is not expected to have a material impact on the markets at this time. • NASDAQ Comp Index Technicals: The index briefly broke below its trading range and the key 30-week moving average before rebounding. We will be closely watching price action and weekly closes for signs of continued weakness or a potential recovery. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index hits Extreme Fear, US markets could see short term rebound.  Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX): The index rebounded off the 5,832 support level and could see further upside, potentially retesting the 6,000–6,100 zone. We are monitoring price action within the 5,832–5,970 range for directional confirmation. Straits Times Ind...