Week Ahead: FOMC and S&P 500 Technical Rebound Expectations

Week Ahead: 17 March 2025

FOMC meeting is scheduled for this week, with rates widely anticipated to be held within the 4.25%–4.5% range. However, the spotlight will be on the Federal Reserve Chairman's statement for insights into future rate policy, inflation, and overall economic conditions.

From a technical perspective, while the S&P 500 Index (US market) remains in a medium-term downtrend, we anticipate the short-term rebound to persist.

Medium Term:

S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 rebounded at the 5,500 level (Fibo 1.618%), falling short of our anticipated target of 5,700. Considering the extreme oversold conditions observed on the FFI, there is a technical expectation for the rebound to extend, potentially testing the resistance zone at 5,780–5,840, where prior support turned resistance.

Straits Times Index (STI): The STI failed to hold above the 3,850 resistance-turned-support level, rendering the short- to medium-term outlook for the index to be technically neutral. For the upward trend to continue, the index must sustain trading above the 3,850–3,900 gap.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): The China A50 Index (grey line) is still trending upward. The Hang Seng Index (candlestick) has resumed its upward trend after a recent consolidation. Our expectations remain that the HSI's upward momentum to continue, testing the 24,950 level.

Long Term:

S&P 500 (SPX) Trend is Neutral (Downward trend developing)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Trend remains upward

Straits Times Index (STI) Trend Neutral (Upward trend remains intact)

Headlines Next Week:

- US FOMC Meeting, Retail Sales

- China LPR Fixing

- SG NODX Report

Disclaimers apply

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025)

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025) Introduction: The Chinese zodiac plays a fascinating role in shaping cultural beliefs and behaviors. Among the 12 zodiac animals, the Year of the Snake is often associated with intelligence, caution, and financial shrewdness. We take a simply review of three key indices, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Straits Times Index (STI), annual performance during the Year of the Snake. Key Observations from the Data: S&P 500 Performance: Average annual return: 0.47% . Win/Loss ratio: 37.5% (3 years of gains vs. 5 years of losses). Notable years: 1989 marked a robust gain of 27.25% , while 1941 saw a steep decline of -20.22% , coinciding with global tensions during World War II. HSI Performance: Average annual return: -5.36% . Win/Loss ratio: 66.67% (2 years of gains vs. 1 year of losses). Notable years: The index's strongest year was 1989, with a return of 5.55% , while 2001 suffered a severe decli...

Mastercard Inc (MA): Mark Up Could Continue

Mastercard Inc (MA): Mark Up Could Continue US$526.60 The rally that led to the $531 resistance in October likely marked a buying climax, where significant demand pushed prices higher. This was followed by a consolidation, as selling pressure from short-term traders met sustained buying from investors. This behavior indicates potential reaccumulation process. Noticeable spikes in volume accompany upward moves in recent trading suggest weakening selling pressure and increase in demand. Technical indicator, stochastic turning with relative strength and Fund Flow Index trading above zero supports the notion that price continue its mark up from here. First Technical Target is at US$557.00, while Trailing stop is set below 48Days Simple Moving Average. Disclaimers apply

Bitcoin: Potential Target of USD90,000, as Momentum Continues

An analysis of Bitcoin CME Futures on a daily timeframe. Relative Strength (aganist Gold) : The indicator is moving upward. This indicates the current uptrend has room to continue before potentially becoming overextended. Fund Flow Index : The is positive values indicate buying momentum, while the increasing bars suggest growing bullish momentum. Key Fibonacci Levels: 1.618 extension around $74,415 (acting as previous resistance). 2.618 extension at $78,290 (potential short-term resistance). A major target near $90,000, aligned with the 4.236 Fibonacci level. Price Target and Resistance Zone : A significant price target is set at $90,000, highlighted in green. This zone aligns with a 4.236% Fibonacci level and Range Projection. This could also act as a resistance if the price approaches it. Summary : The overall trend appears bullish with momentum indicators supporting an upward movement. Current breakout could lead to a test of the $90,000 level. However, if the price falls below...

Market Technician

Search This Blog