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Global Week Ahead: Earnings Season All About Forward Guidance

 

Global Weekly Market Outlook — Week of 21 April 2025

Macro Pulse
Policy remains the key driver of market direction.
This week, focus shifts away from headline 1Q earnings numbers and toward forward guidance, tariff exposure, and supply chain commentary.

The Trump administration announced docking fees on Chinese vessels and signaled the final phase of reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, the TikTok deal appears delayed.

Markets are expected to trade tactically, with US policy and earnings tone setting the pace.

Index Technical & Momentum Views
S&P 500 (SPX)
• Trend Signal: Downtrend intact
• Setup: Price is testing the downward trendline — a potential inflection point
• Base Case: Sideways consolidation between 4,800–5,600
• Action Plan: Monitor for breakout confirmation above trendline; current setup favors tactical range plays


Chart Commentary
S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 Index is approaching its downward trend line, and we are closely monitoring price action at this key technical level. A breakout above could serve as an early indication of a potential trend reversal.

Our base case remains that the index will continue to trade sideways in the week ahead.


Hang Seng Index (HSI)
• Trend Signal: Uptrend continues
• Setup: Price rebounding within ascending channel
• Base Case: Rebound extension likely; watch 21,000–21,600 range
• Action Plan: Long bias intact. Add on dips towards 21,000

Chart Commentary
Hang Seng Index (HSI): Our China Market Long-Term Cycle indicator continues to reflect a sustained upward trend, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) remains within its established ascending trend channel.

Our base case anticipates a continued rebound in the HSI. Alternatively, the index may consolidate within the 21,000 to 21,600 range.

Straits Times Index (STI)
• Trend Signal: Uptrend
• Setup: Strong 350-point rebound, breakout above 3,700 resistance
• Base Case: Consolidation at highs or potential extension
• Action Plan: Accumulate on dips toward 3,580 support. Break above 3,720 signals further upside

Chart Commentary
Straits Times Index (STI): The Straits Times Index (STI) staged a strong rebound of 350 points, breaking above its short-term downward trend line and closing above our key resistance level at 3,700. Immediate Support at 3,580.

Looking ahead, we expect the index to consolidate at current levels or extend its gains in the coming week.


Long Term Trend Bias Summary
SPX – Downtrend
HSI – Uptrend
STI – Uptrend

Headlines Next Week:
- US Corp Earnings: GOOG, TSLA, PG, MRK, CVX, ABBV, PEP, UNP, RTX, CAT
- SG Corp Earnings: SIA, SingPost, OCBC, UOB, CapLand Inv, Keppel, Kep REIT, Kep Inf Tr, Mapletree Log Tr, Suntec REIT, CapLand China Tr, CapLand India Tr, OUE REIT
- US FED Chair Powell speaks, Retail Sales, Ind Prod
- China 1QGDP, Ind Prod, Retail Sales
- SG CPI, Ind Prod

Technical Insight of the Week
"Price approaching trendline resistance warrants patience — inflection points often trap early trades."

Disclaimers apply. This outlook is intended for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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