Skip to main content

Week Ahead: Market Direction Hinges on Responses from U.S. Trading Partners

 



Week Ahead: 7 Apr 2025

With the announcement of Reciprocal Tariffs, investors will be closely monitoring the responses from the affected countries in the week ahead, as well as President Trump's reaction to China's retaliation.

Medium Term:
S&P 500 (SPX): The downtrend has accelerated, with the S&P 500 continuing its decline and closing at our second support zone (Fibonacci 2.618%). The FFI indicates an extreme move. Our base case suggests that the index may consolidate within the 5,000–5,200 range in the coming week. In a worst-case scenario, the index could remain at current levels before trending lower.

To signal any potential trend reversal, a decisive close above our upper downtrend line is required.

Straits Times Index (STI): In line with our analysis, the Straits Times Index (STI) has turned lower, closing at its immediate support zone between 3,800 and 3,850. In the week ahead, if STI breaks below 3,800, it has the potential to test the next support zone at 3,680–3,700, as we have yet to observe signs of an extreme technical downward move.

Currently, the STI's upward trend remains intact. However, a close below the lower channel line would indicate a potential reversal of the uptrend.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): The China A50 Index (grey line) continues to trend upward. While our long-term outlook remains bullish, our short term cautious view in the short term remains.

Long Term:
S&P 500 (SPX) Downtrend (Index closed below 15% from peak. Second confirmation when LT Cycle turns negative)
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Upward Trend
Straits Times Index (STI) Upward Trend

Headlines Next Week:
- US Corp Earnings: JPM, MS, WFC, BLK
- US FOMC minutes, CPI, PPI report 
- China CPI
- SG Prelim GDP 2Q2025 

Disclaimers apply


Most Popular

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025)

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025) Introduction: The Chinese zodiac plays a fascinating role in shaping cultural beliefs and behaviors. Among the 12 zodiac animals, the Year of the Snake is often associated with intelligence, caution, and financial shrewdness. We take a simply review of three key indices, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Straits Times Index (STI),  annual performance  during the Year of the Snake. Key Observations from the Data: S&P 500 Performance: Average annual return: 0.47% . Win/Loss ratio: 37.5% (3 years of gains vs. 5 years of losses). Notable years: 1989 marked a robust gain of 27.25% , while 1941 saw a steep decline of -20.22% , coinciding with global tensions during World War II. HSI Performance: Average annual return: -5.36% . Win/Loss ratio: 66.67% (2 years of gains vs. 1 year of losses). Notable years: The index's strongest year was 1989, with a return of 5.55% , while 2001 suffered a severe decli...
Read more

Live Webinar: Introduction to Tactical Allocation (The Basics of Trading)

Live Webinar: Introduction to Tactical Allocation (The Basics of Trading) The upcoming webinar is designed to equip new traders or someone who has experience trading the markets with the knowledge and tools to navigate the markets with a disciplined allocation process. Webinar Details: Title: Introduction to Tactical Allocation (The Basics of Trading) Date and Time:  12 Dec 24 (Thursday), 7.30pm Platform:  Live Webinar Registration: Click HERE What You'll Learn: An introduction to various financial markets and instruments Momentum and Fundemental Techniques Effective risk management strategy Steps to develop a personalized trading plan Who Should Attend: This webinar is perfect for: Individuals new to tactical allocation (trading) Those looking to enhance their financial literacy (in the area of tactical portoflio allocation) Anyone interested in understanding market dynamics Registeration:  Click  HERE (You will be lead to a SGX Academy registration website)
Read more

BYD Co (1211:HK) Witnessing Signs of Strength

BYD Co (1211:HK) Witnessing Signs of Strength On Friday, we observed strong buying within a wide trading range, with the stock closing near the day’s high and good volume recorded. The previous two days of selling showed relatively low volume, indicating potential supply exhaustion. The stock price is currently at a key resistance level, constrained by a downward trendline and a horizontal support-turned-resistance line. A breakout above this level could signal a potential trend reversal , with an initial technical price target of HK$300.00. The stock is outperforming the broader market, indicating strong market demand, as evidenced by our proprietary Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), which is above zero. Additionally, the volume momentum indicator (FFI) is improving, further supporting the possibility of supply exhaustion. The Stochastic indicator also continues to trend higher, reinforcing a bullish outlook. A stop-loss price is set below HK$248.40 . If the price falls below this l...
Read more